Estimation of the Eddy Thermal Conductivity for Lake Botonega

Article history: Received: 13.4.2016. Received in revised form: 4.1.2017. Accepted: 12.1.2017. This paper presents a part of a computer model that is suitable for limited temperature prediction and its application for Lake Botonega, which is located in Istria, Croatia. The main assumption of this study is that the heat transfer can be described by the eddy diffusivity model to formulate the model of the heating and cooling of a lake using a series of water and air temperature measurements. The coefficient of thermal diffusion, which is a function of the lake depth, is determined using the inverse model of eddy thermal diffusivity. The inverse model is linearized using the finite element approach. The model of lake thermal diffusivity consists of a conductive part and a radiative part, with the latter part being replaced with the heat flux on the boundary. The model parameters are calculated in two steps—a predictor step and a corrector step—and the coefficient of conduction is calculated instead of the diffusion. The estimated parameters are intended for inclusion in a simple three-dimensional thermal model, which provides the lake temperature prediction that is based on previous temperature measurements, as demonstrated in the examples.